Analysis and prediction of Dynamic Change of Cultivated ‎Land Pressure Based on ‎Food Security in ‎Egypt

Abstract

This study aimed to explore and predict‎ the impact of food security on ‎dynamic ‎cultivated ‎land ‎demand‎‎in ‎the case of ‎Egypt. Through using the pressure index ‎model ‎based ‎on ‎food ‎security indicators for ‎the ‎most ‎important strategic ‎crops groups ‎‎(‎‎grain ‎crops, oil ‎crops, and legume crops) ‎in old and new lands ‎‏over ‎the ‎period (‎‎‎2000-‎‎2020)‎. The ‎empirical ‎findings show that the self-sufficiency ratio of ‎grain crops, oil ‎crops, ‎and ‎legume crops ‎was decreased ‎by 39.9%, 76%, and 68% respectively.‎ While, ‎the ‎value of the food security coefficient was less ‎than ‎one; ‎which, leads to ‎dependence ‎on ‎foreign countries for food supplies. Also, threatened ‎the ‎food ‎security of ‎Egypt.‎‎The pressure index on cultivated land for the most important ‎strategic ‎crops ‎groups ‎strategic is ‎less than 1 in old and new ‎lands. Meaning ‎the ‎actual cultivated land per ‎capita is greater than the minimum area cultivated land per capita ‎and is ‎not ‎reached to alarm value. This indicates the old and ‎new lands are ‎still able to ‎achieve self-sufficiency from grain crops, oil crops, and legume ‎crops‎. In 2030, the ‎pressure ‎Index ‎of ‎cultivated land would reach 1 of grain crops, ‎legume crops, and 0.3 of oil ‎crops group, ‎which ‎means the ability of ‎cultivated land to ‎meet future rates and be self-sufficient.‎‏ ‏This search represents the first attempt to explore ‎the impact of food security ‎on dynamic demand for cultivated land in the context of ‎achieving SDGs‎ in Egypt.‎