An Analytical Study Of The Causal Relationship Of The Variables That Affecting On Onion Exports

Abstract

The study showed the stability of the time series at the first difference, that is, it is integrated of the first degree. It is evident that the presence of one vector of co-integration at significance level 5%, that is, there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the study variables. It becomes clear that Granger causality test indicated that there is a one-way causal relationship from the value of onion export to onion production, and from onion export price to onion export value, in addition to onion export price to onion production.
The results of applying the Error Correction Vector Model (VECM) showed that the error correction parameter ECT was negative and significance which estimated at (-2.25), means that speed of adjustment in the short run to equilibrium in long run is 225% per year. which means that there is a quick response. The model coefficients showed that there is a positive and important effect of onion production on onion export value in the short run, In addition, the impact of the onion export price on the onion export value is significant, and there is a positive effect in the short run, It was found that the quality of the vector error-correction model (VECM).